排序方式： 共有28条查询结果，搜索用时 15 毫秒
21.
This paper reports changes in dissolved organic carbon concentration β(DOC) and the relation between UV-active and non-UV-active components determined for Elbe river water and river bank infiltrate in the Torgau river basin between 1992 and 1994. Using an ultrafiltration method, the fractionation of the DOC content was obtained for the fractions > 10 000 g/mol, 1 000…10 000 g/mol, and < 1 000 g/mol. The spectral absorption coefficient at 254 nm a254 of the molecular-weight fractions was also measured. The mean total DOC concentration of Elbe river water decreased from 6.0 mg/L to below 3.9 mg/L along two investigated flowpaths. Two thirds of the decrease occurred within the first few metres of the river bed and one third along the 350 m length of the groundwater flowpaths. The a254 values showed a significant decrease from 14.8 1/m in Elbe river water to 7.8 1/m in the aquifer. Along a flowpath, the proportion of low-molecular weight fraction of DOC increased, the proportion of high-molecular weight fraction decreased, and the proportion of the 1 000…10 000 g/mol molecular-weight fraction remained relatively stable. The Elbe river water contained the main portion of UV-active compounds in the fraction 1 000…10 000 g/mol, and this was also the case for samples of river infiltrate. For the high-molecular weight fraction, mainly non-UV-active compounds were attenuated in the river bed sediment. 相似文献
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地缘政治问题是人文地理学新兴的研究热点。但是，已有研究多基于地理环境要素分析国家的地缘环境或定性讨论地缘战略，很少从双边联系角度定量刻画国家间的地缘关系；现有研究的理论基础也比较薄弱。本文基于地缘政治准则理论，运用1971至2017年联合国投票数据和S分值等方法，从中国与其他国家间关系的历史阶段、友好程度和集团归属三个方面定量分析了世界其他国家对中国的友好程度及其地理分布，并针对中美贸易战的背景指出了中国当前的“朋友”和“敌人”。本文进一步运用面板回归模型分析了中国与世界其他各国的非政治双边关系及其发展水平对中国地缘政治准则的影响，论证了地理距离、经济、技术等因素对地缘关系的影响。本文的分析结果对于加强政治地理学的量化分析有启发作用，也能够为中国更好地处理国际关系和制定地缘政治战略提供参考。 相似文献
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Traditional skill scores (e.g., the threat score) used in the high-resolution verification of precipitation are affected by a “double penalty” caused by slight spatial or temporal displacements, which can lead to misleading evaluations. The fractions skill score (FSS) is a popular spatial verificaiton measure that can be used to solve these problems. It can determine useful and skillful scores by neighborhood analysis, which can be used to monitor the performance of operational forecasts. However, the FSS provides different scores at each spatial scale and it is difficult to obtain a definite score for the assessment of precipitation to analyze the temporal variabilities of daily forecasts. We previously reported a modified FSS assessment method and showed that a particular analysis scale had a significant advantage in the verification of operational forecasts of precipitation. To compensate for the lack of artificial definition in the analysis scale, we report here a new integrated score that satisfies a Gaussian weight function to average the FSS over all scales. We describe the advantages of the new score in the verification of forecasts of daily and hourly precipitation, taking forecast products from the GRAPES regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National Meteorological Information Center during June and July 2017 and investigating the differences between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that a value of 0.5 can be used as a standard for the skillful FSS in the forecast of heavy rainfall. The integrated score can maintain all the advantages seen in previous studies in the verification of daily and hourly precipitation and show excellent application prospects. The long-term verification including different seasons also find that the score can effectively improve the identification characteristics of the assessment. 相似文献
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基于乌鲁木齐区域数值预报业务系统,运用Ts和Bias评分方法,对2012年9月1日—2015年8月31日逐日2个起报时次的逐6 h累积降水量的年与季节预报性能进行检验,并从空间上分析了2015年全疆站点逐6 h累积降水量在4个预报时段的评分特征。结果表明:(1)2个起报时次的降水评分相差较小,00 UTC起报略优于12 UTC起报,2015年系统改进了白天大量级降水的空报现象。(2)系统对晴雨预报较为准确,Bias接近1,空报、漏报率很小;随着降水阈值的升高,Ts评分减小,Bias变幅增大,空、漏报率也随之增加。系统对强降水过程以漏报为主。(3)系统的降水预报能力存在季节差异,夏季Ts评分最高,秋季次之,冬季最小;随时间模式对四季降水预报能力均有提高,降低了冬季大量级降水的漏报率和夏季大量级降水的空报率。(4)在新疆地区,08—14 BT(Beijing Time)、14—20 BT、20—次日02 BT空报站点数多于漏报,14—20 BT空报率最高;在02—08 BT整体呈漏报。(5)各站点整体来看,白天Ts评分高于夜间,山区及邻近地区评分高于平原地区;西天山评分略优于东天山,夜间晴雨预报有天山北坡漏报、南坡空报的趋势。 相似文献
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M. D. Ugarte B. Ibáñez A. F. Militino 《Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment (SERRA)》2005,19(1):33-40
In this paper we derive score tests for spatial independence in mortality or incidence risk in the framework of hierarchical spatial models where different Gaussian Markov random field (MRF) priors are given for modelling the area random effects (specifically, two non-intrinsic Gaussian priors and a convolution Gaussian prior). The techniques used to test the practically relevant and important simplifying hypotheses of an absence of spatial variation in risk will provide a guidance for practitioners to select an adequate model (i.e., a model with an exchangeable-independent-prior, an intrinsic prior, a convolution prior or a non-intrinsic prior, for the area-specific random effects distribution). The proposed methodology is illustrated by analyzing the well-known data set of lip cancer in Scotland and female mortality due to cerebrovascular disease in Navarra, Spain. 相似文献
26.
月动力延伸预报产品的评估和解释应用 总被引：25，自引：9，他引：16
该文用3种客观评分方法对国家气候中心的月动力延伸预报结果（500 hPa位势高度场）进行了全面评估。结果表明,延伸预报环流的旬和月平均场预报准确率明显高于持续性预报,有一定的预报技巧和业务参考价值,但仍未达到可用于实际业务预报的技巧。对形势预报进一步分析发现,500 hPa的部分环流特征量模拟效果好,其预报技巧高于整个形势场的预报。根据已有的经验和研究成果,这些环流特征量和要素预报有较好的相关,可以直接在业务中应用。该方法为动力产品的解释应用提供了又一条途径。 相似文献
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H. Hellmann 《洁净——土壤、空气、水》1995,23(3):121-130
Fine Resolution of UV Spectra by Differentiation of 1st and 2nd Order in Hydrocarbon Analysis Basic UV spectra (0th order) in unpolar solvents such as cyclohexane are useful — though with some reservations — in characterizing mineral oils occuring in pure form and aromatic fractions in environmental samples separated by chromatographic techniques. The common standard raffinates, biogenic hydrocarbons or other mixes of hydrocarbons including polycyclic aromatics can be approximately identified. The spectra of 1st and 2nd order improve the reliability of the results and permit above all to detect polycondensated aromatics even in traces. Finally, partial spectra of 1st and 2nd order in the wavelength ranges 205…240, 220…260, and 260…320 nm allow because of their very specific structures a simple and fast practically definite assignment to the above-mentioned groups of aromatics. Analogously, substituted aromatics in detergents and other technical products have already been identified. The method is suitable as a fast preliminary test, at least. 相似文献